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Handicapping The Offense In Baseball
Baseball is not generally thought of as an offensive or defensive game, at least the terms are not commonly used. Pitching and hitting are the more common terms when relating to offense or defense in baseball. The defense in baseball is made up of the starting pitching, the bullpen, the unearned runs allowed and the overall fielding prowess of the nine men on the field. There are dozens of stats that are present in handicapping baseball, but the bottom line is that only one stat is the determining factor which decides whether you cash your ticket or deposit it in a trash can…That is “runs scored”..! Batting Avg, on base percentage, steals, etc all add up to the final stat which is scoring runs..However, the team with the highest batting avg or men on base percentage is not going to cash your ticket unless they put runs on the board. There is little doubt that handicapping baseball properly is the must tedious and time consuming of all betting sports, however, it is the most profitable for me. I spend on average anywhere from 9 to 10 hours daily depending on the number of games on the schedule.

For this article we will focus on the various offensive statistical categories that teams are faced in each match up. I use the following stats for determining how many runs a particular team is “expected” to score in a particular game based on past history.

Average runs per game at home or away…There are a few factors that contribute to why there is normally a difference in runs scored on a home field than on the road. Familiarity with the playing surface, comforts of home with no trips back and forth to the hotel and the characteristics of the ballpark itself are just a few.
Average runs per game versus lefty or righty…Some teams lineups are configured better toward a lefty or righty pitcher. They may have more power hitters who are right handed batters and will definitely have an edge when facing a left handed batter and vice versa.
Average runs per game home and away vs lefty or righty… The home park might be more advantageous to a right handed or left handed batter with shorter fences to left or right field, which will indicate a difference in most cases as to the number of average runs versus left or righty at home than on the road. You must pay attention however to road ball parks that have the same or near the same configuration as a home teams park.
Average runs per game vs “A”, “B”, “C” or “D” pitchers….A big mistake many handicappers make when figuring a teams offensive run output, is using the “overall” average runs in each various situation mentioned in this article, or just the overall runs scored period…This is very misleading. A team maybe averaging say 5.0 runs per game overall, but when facing an “A” pitcher (one with an ERA of under 3.25) they may be only averaging 2.5 or 3.0 runs per game…Big difference. Some teams can beat up on the “C” or “D” pitchers, but have terrible records against good pitching. So it is imperative to track the average runs against each of the 4 classes of pitchers and make the necessary adjustments.
Average runs per game on grass or turf….I do keep this stat daily, however, I am finding this category becoming more and more insignificant with more parks going to artificial turf. Teams with speed and have a lot of hitters who “keep the ball in play” will get more singles and doubles on a turf surface than on natural grass.
Average runs per game night or day….For some unknown reason, there are definitely some teams who consistently score higher or lower on average in day or night games….
The opposing teams average unearned runs per game…MLB teams on average overall, give up around 0.40 unearned runs per game. However, there are currently some teams that are giving up 0.60 or 0.70 unearned runs per game. This is very significant seeing as so many games are determined by one run…After getting the average runs based on the above categories, adding the unearned runs could turn a play into a no play or vice versa.
Adjusting to the average runs per game in the specific ball park they are playing….Not all ballparks are the same…Keeping track of the average runs scored in each individual ballpark is imperative. The average overall for major league parks may be in the vicinity of 8.0 runs per game, but some have averages as high as 10.0 and some as low as 6.0. I adjust my average runs for visiting teams to reflect the difference in overall runs for that particular ballpark.
Adjustment of the average runs based on regular starters who are out of the lineup….This may be the one single most important stat of all when figuring how many runs a particular team will score on a given day. Taking a Barry Bond or Albert Pujols out of a lineup could very well mean as much as 1.5 or 2.0 runs difference on average in each game. I use the runs scored, RBI’s and homeruns to figure just how much the missing player will effect the run output of the game.
Adjusting to the weather and wind conditions…..Teams overloaded with power hitters or homerun hitters, will be at a much more of a disandvantage when playing in a condition where the wind is blowing in from the outfield. Of course the opposite holds true when the wind is blowing out. Wind conditions have little effect on the teams that have a lineup of hitters that just keep the ball in play, pounding out singles and doubles.
Evaluating the Umpire ……Umpires have certain trends that appear to be consistent year after year. Some umpires are consistently showing a edge to the overs in his games and others a definite trend to the unders. The ball and strike zone of each umpire differs. A ump with a small strike zone will have a tendency to average one or more runs per game than some others, thus creating an edge to the over in his games. Handicapping the umps may be a very small part of handicapping the offense, but you must remember that fractions of runs will eventually add up to one run which my make the difference in a loss or a win.

After getting all the average runs scored in each of the first 6 categories mentioned above, you will then add the average runs difference in each of the remaining categories that pertains to the particular game, you can then add them all up and divide by the number of categories you used and get the actual average runs this team is “expected” to score in this particular game.

Example: Let’s say a team playing at home against a left handed “B” pitcher at night on grass. They average 4.4 runs at home overall, 5.2 runs against lefties overall and have averaged 4.7 runs against lefties when playing at home and 3.2 runs against “B” pitchers. On grass they average 4.6 runs and at night 3.8 runs. Their average runs in this category would be 4.31 runs expected to score. Let’s now say that the opposing team is averaging 0.20 unearned runs per game and no regular starters are out of the lineup. You now add the 0.20 runs to their total to get an overall average of 4.51 expected runs for this game. Do the same with the opposing team and you get the difference which will show who is expected to outscore their opponent, (based on the offense only, you would still need to figure the defense to get the final ouput of runs, see our article handicapping baseball on the website.)

This may seem like a awful lot of time and work….well it is! But it is the most accurate method of handicapping baseball offense…